As a technologist who’s focused on marketing, I love stats (short for statistics) because they help me tell a story. But as a former researcher, I’m very familiar with the famous quote by humorist Mark Twain:

“Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.”

At last night’s AiMA event on search engine strategies, the speakers referenced a study where users showed no significant preference to Bing or Google. After a short web search (via Google), I found the research paper by the Catalyst Group (see below). In the study, users reported that they wouldn’t switch from their current search engines even though Bing possessed some favorable improvements to Google.

While the findings attempted to explain how Bing will never catch up to Google, I was surprised that the speakers chose to quote the study as fact. There were two glaring issues that I immediately noticed once I located the study:

• The participants used Google as their main search engine.
• The study involved only 12 participants.

While some may argue that the opinion of the participants was tainted (since none used Microsoft Search as their primary search engine), I was even more surprised that no one considered the small participants pool. While I subscribe to the notion that we’re creatures of habit and users won’t change when they can’t find a significant value in the new “shinny object,” the bottom line is that the study’s findings are statistically invalid. While I’m fairly certain that the speakers were not aware of flaw in the study, it demonstrates how easy it is to rely on and propagate bad statistics and how careful marketers need to be when they quote a study.

NOTE: I recently wrote a blog post about Twitter data and Rapleaf based on an NPR radio bit. Rapleaf reached out and explained the issue with the misinformation that I had referenced. It goes to show that we’re all human; we make mistakes.

Catalyst Group Bing V. Google Usability Study

Comscore released the January 2010 rankings for search engines in the U.S. last week (source). In the release comScore indicated that Google lost 0.3% share of core search in the US in January 2010 (see below). This is the first indication that Google may be struggling to pick up additional market share from rivals, but data for the remainder of Q1 2010 is required to determine if Google has truly reached a search saturation point. If it has, we can expect Google revenue to stabilize or potentially drop but so far they continue to grow a healthy pace.

The big news is that Microsoft’s search engine Bing picked up an additional 0.6% share of US core search in January 2010 from rivals Yahoo!, AOL and Ask.com. As can be seen below, Bing has experienced strong growth in the past two quarters, which are mostly attributed to new deals (source).

Based on trending analysis of the comScore data, it seems that Bing will eclipse Yahoo sometime between August 2010 and November 2010 (the latter point based on Bing growing while Yahoo remaining the same). While Yahoo has announced a $100 M global marketing campaign to promote its revamped web portal (source), it may be too late to save the Yahoo brand. After all, we know that:

• Microsoft has given no indication that they’re going to spend money on search, even if it is a losing proposition. In addition to committing $100 M to market the search engine (source), Microsoft made numerous attempts to showcase Bing at the expense of Google. These include a exclusive alliance with News Corporation’s websites, including the Wall Street Journal  (source) and deals to become the default search engine on the iPhone (source). Microsoft recently announced the integration of Bing search with Facebook (source), which means that 400 M social users will now see Bing search. For Microsoft to catch up to Google, they must produce a better search solution but they must remind consumers that Bing is a good solution.
• Traffic to Yahoo’s portal has lost significant market share over the past year. Yahoo properties’s share went from 67.7% in December 2008 (source) to 56.8% in December 2009 (source). The loss of eyeballs at both Yahoo and MyYahoo portal is likely the culprit of declining search market share.

While something big can always happen, it seems that Yahoo’s decline is inevitable. RIP Yahoo.

Google made headlines today with their first foray into social activity streaming (source). The new feature is basically like a Twitter tweet or a Facebook wall post embedded into gmail (Google’s email service).

To test it out, I tried it both on my desktop and my mobile device (the iPhone). I posted a quick status update about a meeting that I had in the afternoon and then I used the GPS-enables search capability to search for buzz posts from friends and people that are nearby. And the verdict is?

While Google may have thought that it had a hit on their hands, it feels more like a buzz-kill to me. There are several issues with this new service:

1. It is force social networking in email. Google opted to directly introduce this feature instead of using the Gmail Labs capabilities to introduce this feature as an add-on (the way that Google normally introduces new features). Google also added a special icon to this feature to draw focus to this new feature, ensuring that gmail users pay attention to it.
2. Google didn’t make Buzz super-intuitive. As a Google Wave user, I’ve wanted to tie my Wave, which is collaborative message, to an email as a means of continuing the conversation. While I learned that Google Buzz has this feature, I didn’t pick up on it until I watched the video (source). I also had a co-worker asking me how they can tie Buzz to Twitter, which they didn’t think was very obvious.
3. People don’t seem to know how to to use Buzz. I must be a super early adopter because NO ONE (and I mean none of my technologically or marketing savvy friends) seemed to have used Buzz to post a single buzz. The worst part about this test is that I know that they checked their gmail account at least once today so I would have expected to see one buzz. I think that this is indicative that while Google may have a significant user base, the Google Buzz service in by itself is not enough to entice a user to post to an activity stream nor is it a good replacement of twitter.

For Google, Buzz is a necessary service. It helps Google:

1. Generate more traffic/interest in Gmail. Gmail has less users than Hotmail and Yahoo so they need a service to increase subscribers.
2. Google Buzz creates a solution to connects your email with Twitter.  This feature is incredibly value to marketers who want to understand the consumers that interact with their brands. While DandyID offers a similar capability, Google already has a larger user base so it is game over for DandyID.
3. Buzz establishes a new page view/instance to sell an add. Google isn’t doing this because they want to offer something cool/evolutionary — Google needs buzz to goose their ad revenue (even if they don’t roll this feature out immediately).

The one thing that I noted on the first evening of having access to Google Buzz is that interest was fading fast. While Google Buzz was ranked 4th in hot search topics in the USA, it dropped to the 10th spot within 20 minutes (see below).

Let’s hope that tomorrow’s a better day for this shinny new service.

It seems that every day that goes by, another one of the user interface developers that I work with talks about how Internet Explorer 6 must die. Granted, they have plenty of justification for why this browser should go away. For example, Internet Explorer (aka, IE6) is “ancient” — it was released in late 2001 (source). It has serious security flaws (source) and Microsoft has moved on to release IE7 and IE8. But there’s a problem that non-developers seem to be ignoring.

While IE6 usage dropped significantly in early 2008/2009, the downward pressure has softened quite a bit this year. And a recent survey revealed that IE6 is used primarily at work and the majority of people unfortunately can’t upgrade/replace IE6 because they have insufficient privileges on their machines/their company won’t let them upgrade (source). So without significant force now, it may take another two years before IE drops to a level where enough developers stop coding UI tweaks for IE6. Since coding for IE6 takes significantly more time, marketers are unnecessarily spending money on outdated technology (like paying for a telephone land line or dial-up internet service).

Last week, six solid punches in one swing were taken at IE6. I am speaking about the announcement that Google is planning to phase out support for IE6 (source). The announcement indicated that key functionality in Google Docs and [international] Google Sites will be disrupted starting on March 1, 2010. Since no other popular web destination is stepping up to the plate, we’ve got to applaud Google which owns 6 of the top 20 destination on the web (source) for their efforts. So what we really need to do is convince several US-based companies, such as Microsoft (thank you @cubanx!), Yahoo! and Amazon, and Chinese companies, including Baidu, QQ.com and Sina.com.cn, to jumped on board. While it may feel like we’ve made progress, the short list below demonstrates that we still have a long road ahead of us.

Top 20 Companies that don’t support the IE must die movement:

1. Google (starting 1-Mar-2010)
   
2. Facebook (as of 24-Jul-2008)
   
3. YouTube (starting 1-Mar-2010)
4. Yahoo!
5. Windows Live
6. Wikipedia
7. Blogger.com (starting 1-Mar-2010)
8. Baidu.com
9. MSN.com
10. QQ.com
11. Yahoo! Japan
12. Twitter
13. Google India (starting 1-Mar-2010)
14. Google China (starting 1-Mar-2010)
15. Sina.com.cn
16. MySpace
17. Google Germany (starting 1-Mar-2010)
18. WordPress.com
19. Microsoft
20. Amazon.com

Apple has done it yet again. According to the Q1 2010 results (source), consumers snapped up 8.7 Million iPhone devices this past quarter. While a few mobile market analysts feel that Apple missed their sales target (BTW, some expected sales to reach the 9 Million to 11 Million units mark), the growth of the iPhone still represents a healthy 100% increase in sales in comparison to the same quarter last year.

In my discussions with Marketers, I’m regularly asked whether iPhone app development or iPhone mobile campaigns make sense considering the dominance of rival smartphone devices such as RIM’s BlackBerry. There’s valid concern if you consider only the number of mobile devices but that number isn’t as important when you consider usage. While RIM currently outsells Apple in smartphone devices (RIM sold 10.1 million devices in the quarter ending November 28, 2009 whereas Apple sold 7.4 million iPhones in about the same period), the iPhone accounted for 60% of page views AND 75% of mobile revenue at the top online retailers this past holiday season according to Omniture (source). So while BlackBerry devices are more prevalent, users avoid using this device to browse the web. This decision is likely based on the poor web browsing experience. And Marketers that are considering the accessibility of their website should optimize it for the iPhone.

So Marketers that want to interact with the largest group of mobile users should first focus on the iPhone platform — nothing else compares. But besides usage, Apple provides plenty of additional reasons for why the iPhone platform will also win in the long run:

• The current quarter’s iPhone unit sales numbers exclude the 55% year-over-year growth in sales of the iPod Touch. The iPod Touch is a Wifi-enabled mobile device that supports many of the iPhone applications. The iPod Touch user segment represent a group that is not bound by telephony service but are still connected (likely to be a younger demographic).
• Sales growth was driven by strong global demand. This implies that marketers can now expose their application/campaign or brand to an international audience (while facing the challenges that come with such a relationship).
• With the introduction of the iPhone 3GS, demand for the iPhone has spilled from the consumer market over to the enterprise market. Apple reported that 70% of the Fortune 200 are either deploying or piloting the iPhone. While marketers may have previously focused on the business to consumer or B-to-C market segment, they now have an opportunity to create applications that address the needs of the business to business or B-to-B market.
• Apple continues to invest heavily in customer service, whether it is through training of mobile carriers on device or one-on-one coaching of new customers at their 283 stores (currently present in 10 countries). This is a critical tactic for Apple to attract and service an older demographic of users that may not be as comfortable with touch-based technologies.
• The numbers did not account for the  upcoming product introduction of a tablet-like device. This highly anticipated announcement is expected tomorrow but the value of this news is that Apple will give marketers yet another device that will support mobile applications. The segment of the users that select and use this device is still unknown but it is potentially a new group of untapped users.
• Lastly, Apple has completed two recent acquisitions: music streaming service Lala and mobile advertising platform Quattro. Both represent the company’s continued future-looking view on revenue generation and demands.

Apple seems to be benefiting from a positive feedback loop. While the iPhone does have its flaws (it is not a perfect mobile device!), Apple has built an elegant smartphone unit that is extremely user-friendly. Additionally, iPhone users regularly promote their smartphone to other non-users in their social circles so the masses are choosing iPhone when deciding to go mobile (source). For brands that are still on the sidelines or ones that are only focused on the alternatives (which is a mistake; source), there’s no better time than now to jump on the iPhone platform bandwagon.

A rumor started to circulate early yesterday that Apple and Microsoft are engaged in discussions over the displacement of Google search on the iPhone. According to BusinessWeek (source), Apple is considering using Bing as the search engine on the iPhone. The reasons that the authors gave for this move included:

• This was a financially motivated decision. Microsoft was offering Apple a bigger revenue slice of the advertising pie for incorporate Bing than Google.
• This was an effort to thwart Google’s recent jump into mobile. It seemed that Google was moving in on Apple’s territory with their introduction of the Nexus One device.

While some may buy into this rumor, there’s very little reason to believe it. Here’s why:

Apple is in the business of designing beautiful devices with exceptional user-experience for the consumer market. Google has dominant position in the web search market. Google reached this point by creating a simple, user-friendly search engine so having Google Search on the iPhone makes for a perfect match. While Google may not want to share more of their search revenue, they’ve bowed to the pressure of News Corp owner Rupert Murdoch when he proclaimed in November 2009 that Google was stealing his paid content (source) and that he would switch to Bing if he had no other option.

Regarding the competitive threat, there are two reasons that Apple may not be worried. First, John Paczkowski of AllThingsDigital wrote about a rumor that Microsoft is planning to release a Zune Phone in the next couple of months (source). In case you’re wondering, this rumor originally surfaced back in late 2008 (source) but this is the FIRST time that there’s thought that the phone will be pink. Currently, there’s no proof that Microsoft or any other phone/mobile OS marker is going to magically recapture Apple’s market share with their mobile offering. This rings true considering that Nexus One sales estimates reached a paltry 20,000 in the first week of offering according to mobile analytics service Flurry (source). If the Zune rumor is taken as fact, then Microsoft is a rival to Apple as much as is Google so there’s no real rush/need to switch.

In my opinion, it feels more like Apple is playing a good game of chicken with Google and Microsoft is just caught in between.

Last July, Bill Gates handed over the reins to Steve Balmer. But while Bill is no longer running operations day to day, his quest for world domination now seems to be immortalized.

In a recent preview for the movie Despicable Me, we found an odd similarity between one of the characters called Vector and Bill in his younger days. In the movie preview, Vector is defending his company from another villain who’s wearing goggles (get it goggles, Google). Well, if you don’t believe me, check out the image below or the link movie preview. Bill, I mean Vector, makes his debut about 47 seconds into this clip.

Happy New Year!

Despicable Me trailer on YouTube:

Google announced yesterday that they’ve entered the URL shortening marketplace with a solution called Goo.gl (see Mashable’s coverage: source). The new service is going to be bundled with the Google Toolbar and Feedburner. Goo.gl is intended to compete with URL shortener bit.ly which has seen explosive growth in the last 9 months (according to Google Trends):

Not all URL shortener services have followed the same growth pattern. It is clear from the above that tinyURL.com has hit a plateau. It seems that Bit.ly has done well because their service has been integrated into multiple applications (eg: see NYTimes iPhone app and Feedly).

This service is a good strategic move for Google since URL shorteners are playing a larger role in extending the reach of digital content. As social media sites grow and smartphones adoption increases, users will become more reliant on these solutions.

I just think that the news release comes at an odd time because Bit.ly announces their new Bit.ly Pro service on the same day (thanks to @NickJAyers for the tip). The new service allows bloggers to offer their users a custom branded, URL shortening solution (note: the solution is built on top of the bit.ly platform). As part of the announcement, Bit.ly publicized the fact that several well known Web publishers and bloggers have signed up to use this service. Additionally, the new solution includes a more robust visualization engine for the analytics data (which now better competes with Google Analytics).

The launch of Goo.gl feels a bit like a disorganized, knee-jerk reaction to Bit.ly’s news — maybe even an attempt to take the wind out of Bit.ly’s sails. I say that because the release lacked any substantial marketing materials or formal developer documentation, which Google bundles as part of a new product launch (hey Google — where’s my YouTube video? I got one with Google Goggles). One can understand that Google now sees Bit.ly as a real threat because Bit.ly Pro further extends the amount of data the Bit.ly will collect about user behavior and that’s Google’s home turf. Clearly, the gloves are off in the fight to dominate the URL shortening marketplace.

NOTE: For some odd reason, I can easily type the word Bit.ly but Goo.gl doesn’t roll out the same way. Whenever I type this, I end up with Goog.l which is incorrect. I’m wondering if anyone else is having this problem or if it is just me?

Last week, Google rolled out a new service called Google Dashboard. The service was designed to help users better understand what information Google collects about them:

The dashboard is a welcomed service for two reasons:

It is an initial privacy control mechanism. While Google remains heavily dependent on search, Google continues to expand their services offering. In reviewing these services, it has become clear that Google controls every medium of communication with the exception of fax and snail mail:

NOTE: Google has Gmail (Email), Google Chrome (Web Browser), Google Wave and Google Talk (Chat/IM/Video), and Android and Google Voice (Mobile, Phone).

If Google decides to continue their acquisition streak, Google may find themselves in the eyesight of privacy advocates that are worried about Google owning too much information about you. If Google sits on the sidelines, Google may be forced eventually to disclose personal information to their end users or to limit the information that they can collect. The Google Dashboard gives Google leverage over privacy advocates in that they give you control over your information.

It prepares users for Google Chrome OS. A few months ago, Google announced the development of an OS for netbooks (source). Additionally, Google is known for their exceptional user experience. It seems that the Google Dashboard makes an initial attempt at consolidating account preferences into a single view, a feature that one would expect when Google releases their OS.

While the Google Dashboard is by no means perfect, it is a fine start.

There’s rarely a day that goes by where Microsoft and Google don’t challenge each other. They battle to control every aspect of our digital world, including email (hotmail vs. gmail), the browser (IE vs. Chrome), the desktop (Microsoft Office vs. Google Docs) and of course search (Microsoft Bing vs. Google Search). While Google has continued to gain ground on Microsoft, Yahoo and others, a new search competitor, albeit small, called Twitter has emerged.

Why Twitter? Well, besides serving as social networking tool for celebrities, Twitter also provides a stream of breaking news and real time events. For example, if I am looking to learn about the latest developments in SharePoint, I avoid the search engines because the news that I’ll read there will be at least 24 hours old. Instead, I search for tweets with SharePoint as a word or hashtag in Twitter. The search results present me with a quick list of the latest developments.

Both Microsoft and Google both recognize this deficiency but only Microsoft has first responded to this need. They beat Google to the punch with the recent announcement that tweets from Twitter will now be indexed and served up alongside Bing results (source). The meshing of Bing and Twitter is good for both tools/companies:

• Search engines have always had search for content on their own. They leveraged the spiders to crawl and index new content or asked website owners to submit XML sitemaps to uncover more content and links. But Twitter serves as a new source of link that can provider links to the freshest content around.
• Developers can create applications using the Twitter API so the idea of serving ads alongside tweets was a bit complex. By offering the data to search engines, Twitter has identified a revenue stream without having to depend on an ad-based revenue model.
• Data that Twitter collects (and I’ve got to imagine that they are collecting a ton of data) is only available for a limited amount of time (typically 7 – 14 days). Many developers have used this limitation to develop an app that persists the data for an extended period of time. But if Bing or Google starts storing that data, Developers could potentially turn to these search engines to mine Twitter data.

Microsoft seems to be trying to distinguish Bing as a leader in search engines. Bing has challenged Google on other fronts, including image search capabilities, where you see an endless set of results, and video search capabilities, where you can play a video without having to leave the results. With tweets alongside search results, Microsoft may be able to take more market share from Google. While a market share loss of  may not seem to be much when Google still has a dominant position, it does translate to a greater loss when one considers that 97% of Google’s revenue is dependent on search.

NOTE: For now, you can search within the latest tweets using the new Bing Twitter engine (source).